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Business News/ Opinion / Khaki is back in vogue in Pakistan
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Khaki is back in vogue in Pakistan

The squabbling for power in Pakistan shows that the ultimate arbiter of political destiny there is its Army

Photo: ReutersPremium
Photo: Reuters

The ongoing political crisis in Pakistan has reaffirmed the critical role of the Army in the country’s polity. It has again exposed the politicians who have always failed to govern well, rise above petty power games and not be manipulated by the Army. Unable to resolve their differences by adhering to the constitution and democratic accommodation they turn to the Army to act as facilitator, mediator and guarantor as is happening now.

On Sunday, army chief General Raheel Sharif briefed the Corps Commanders conference about his political facilitation at the request of the government. The generals assured their support to democracy but advised the Nawaz Sharif government and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) head Tahirul Qadri to resolve the situation politically “without wasting anytime and without recourse to violence". They also cautioned the government against the use of force of the kind seen over the weekend in the capital when the media, too, was targeted. Clearly, the Army does not wish to assume direct political power but it has not closed the door to doing so. More than decisively weakening Sharif, these events constitute a clear setback to democratic consolidation in Pakistan.

The political theatre in Islamabad has been riveting but has masked the real underlying contestation that has taken place between the Army and Sharif over the past few months. The public and media focus though has largely been on an impatient and impulsive Khan who is convinced that he is destiny’s choice to fashion a “Naya Pakistan" and a charismatic but demagogic Qadri who wants to cleanse Pakistan through a benign Islam-inspired revolution and an obdurate and insensitive Sharif. Khan and Qadri have, however, unwittingly or otherwise been the Army’s instruments to pressure Sharif.

The present situation can be traced to 17 June when the police clashed with Qadri’s supporters over many hours in Lahore in an attempt to clear barricades surrounding the cleric’s house and the offices of his organization the Minhaj ul Quran. The incident occurred on the eve of Qadri’s return to Pakistan to launch a struggle against the Sharif brothers. It led to the death of 14 of his workers. An incensed Qadri vowed to take revenge.

On 27 June, Khan announced that he would lead a million strong Azaadi March from Lahore to Islamabad on 14 August, Pakistan’s Independence Day to force the government to hold a full enquiry into allegations of rigging in the May 2013 Parliamentary elections. He also demanded Sharif’s resignation to ensure a fair enquiry. Qadri soon decided to lead an “inquilab" march on the same days also to Islamabad from Lahore. He, too, asked for Sharif’s resignation but his revolutionary agenda is far more ambitious.

Khan and Qadri have no history of cooperation nor do they have similar theological moorings. Khan is a tacit supporter of many objectives of the jihadi organizations while Qadri opposes the methods of these organizations. Thus prima facie their coordination seemed to be governed by a “hidden hand" especially as both have had links with the Pakistan Army.

Initially, Sharif did not take the challenge from Khan and Qadri with adequate seriousness nor did he show any urgency to settle his differences with the Army. All through his political career he has allowed thorny situations to drift and assume dangerous dimensions instead of swiftly and effectively addressing them. Secure in his decisive parliamentary majority, he dithered and procrastinated. Only on the eve of the march did he offer to have a Supreme Court appointed committee enquire into allegations of electoral fraud and later agreed to the registration of a first information report against himself and others for the Lahore incident.

The Army’s relations with Sharif have been uneasy since he became prime minister in May 2013. The past sits heavy on both. Differences have arisen over the future of former army chief General Pervez Musharraf whose presence in Pakistan continues to be embarrassing for the Army. When Musharraf finally agreed to pocket his pride and leave Pakistan, Sharif unwisely did not let him do so. Equally importantly when the Army wanted to launch operations against the Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan Sharif chose the path of dialogue. It was only after the Taliban attack on Karachi Airport that he gave the go ahead. It was also a reluctant Army that acquiesced in Sharif accepting the invitation to visit New Delhi in May for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. This political crisis has ensured that Sharif will not interfere in the Army’s control of Pakistan’s security policies.

The standoff in Islamabad continues as Sharif refuses to resign despite Khan and Qadri’s insistence. The country is paralysed. The Army will now actively mediate to find an all round face saving formula especially after the brief takeover of Pakistan TV by the agitators. If that fails, it will give a diktat.

Most political parties in Parliament have refused to endorse Khan and Qadri’s call for Sharif’s resignation. While this is encouraging, these events compel a re-examination of the view that there are now multiple centres of power in Pakistan—the elected government, an assertive and activist judiciary, a vocal civil society and media, the right wing religious groups and the Army; for, when push comes to shove the only men who matter are those in khaki.

Vivek Katju was in charge of the Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan desk in the ministry of external affairs. He was also India’s ambassador to Afghanistan.

Comments are welcome at theirview@livemint.com

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Published: 01 Sep 2014, 05:19 PM IST
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