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Business News/ Opinion / Blogs/  Lok Sabha polls hold the key to Uddhav Thackeray’s future
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Lok Sabha polls hold the key to Uddhav Thackeray’s future

If Shiv Sena fails to do well in the Lok Sabha polls, the party's cadres may leave en masse and join MNS or NCP

Ever since Sena’s win in the Mumbai municipal corporation elections in 2002, it was Uddhav who was running the show. Bal Thackeray was more or less a titular head. Photo: PTIPremium
Ever since Sena’s win in the Mumbai municipal corporation elections in 2002, it was Uddhav who was running the show. Bal Thackeray was more or less a titular head. Photo: PTI

Mumbai: It has been a year since the death of Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray and his son and current party president Uddhav Thackeray has proved critics wrong.

The political pundits in Maharashtra started expressing their doubts about the ability of Uddhav to keep the party united even when Bal Thackeray was alive but ailing. They had apprehensions about the future of Sena as a force in state politics since August last year when it became clear that Bal Thackeray, who was suffering from pancreatic cancer, was not going to recover.

Most pundits were predicting that there would be exodus of Shiv Sainiks (party activists) towards Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Uddhav’s more charismatic and estranged cousin Raj Thackeray. Some even predicted that a sizeable chunk of the party would go to Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). As proof, they were pointing fingers towards NCP’s soft approach towards Sena and repeated visits by the Pawar family to the ailing Thackeray.

But nothing of that sort has happened. Apart from minor irritation in the form of former Lok Sabha speaker Manohar Joshi openly speaking about the so-called ineffectiveness of Uddhav’s leadership, his sway over the party remained unchallenged.

Those who were writing obituaries of Sena perhaps forgot to factor in the fact that the Shiv Sena which we have been seeing in last few years is Uddhav’s Sena and not Balasaheb’s Sena. Ever since Sena’s win in the Mumbai municipal corporation elections in 2002, it was Uddhav who was running the show. Bal Thackeray was more or less a titular head.

Those who felt that they could not work under Uddhav’s leadership left the party. For instance, in 2005, former state chief minister Narayan Rane walked out of the party to join Congress and, in 2006, Raj left Sena to form his own outfit. Those who remained in the party are Uddhav’s men.

But now Uddhav is going to face the biggest challenge of his life—the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The performance of his party in the Lok Sabha polls will provide pointers for the state assembly election, which will take place in October-November of 2014.

Since the death of Bal Thackeray, Uddhav has travelled extensively in the state despite having eight stents in his heart and remained focused on building the party’s organization at the grassroots. Uddhav is aware of the fact that he lacks his father and cousin Raj’s charisma but he tries to overcome this handicap by sheer hard work. He is also good at chalking out strategies and campaigns for elections.

In the 2012 elections for Mumbai municipal corporation, Uddhav fielded 96 new candidates for 136 seats it contested. This ensured that anti-incumbency of seating corporators or the locally known candidate in the area doesn’t hurt the party.

Similarly, Sena’s campaign of Karun Dakhaval (Yes, We did it) highlighting various achievements of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai under Sena rule was quite a hit and played a crucial role in the party’s win.

Uddhav’s critics, however, point out that he had not been able to give the party any new direction or programme under his leadership and he is just interested in maintaining the status quo. Also, the party is revolving around only one issue—the grand memorial for Bal Thackeray.

If Sena performs well—all recent opinion polls say that it will do better—and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comes to power in Delhi, then it can hope to have a shot at power in the state to end 14 years in the wilderness. However, if it fails to hold on to its tally in the Lok Sabha, it could prove fatal for the party’s future. The Sena currently has 11 members in the Lok Sabha.

If indeed that happens, the party’s middle and lower rank cadres will leave en masse and join MNS, and those who think they don’t have future in MNS may prefer to join the NCP.

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Published: 17 Nov 2013, 07:44 PM IST
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