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Business News/ Opinion / The year of living with past fears
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The year of living with past fears

The rise of Islamic State, fall in oil prices and the inability to curtail the Ebola outbreak revealed how ill prepared nations are to deal with them

Though prospects of nations in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East sleepwalking into war receded by year-end, diplomatic negotiations can claim little credit and relations among key powers remain frayed. Photo: ReutersPremium
Though prospects of nations in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East sleepwalking into war receded by year-end, diplomatic negotiations can claim little credit and relations among key powers remain frayed. Photo: Reuters

This year, which marked the centenary of the start of World War I, also saw some of the trends that led to that global conflagration resurface during the year: the rise of an aspirant middle class coupled with poor global economic growth; the rise of nationalism and sectarianism; the delusion that deterrence, especially nuclear deterrence, alone will prevent conflict; and the failure of leadership both at the national and the global level.

These conditions also revived the spectre of interstate war, which experts had discarded to the dustbin of history in the post-Cold-War and post 9/11 era. Though prospects of nations in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East sleepwalking into war receded by year-end, diplomatic negotiations can claim little credit and relations among key powers remain frayed.

Additionally a series of ‘black swan’ events--from the dramatic and brutal rise of the Islamic State (IS), to the precipitous fall in oil prices and the inability to curtail the Ebola outbreak--revealed how ill prepared nations and the international community were to deal with them.

2014 also marked the centenary of the pivotal role Indian troops played in ending WW I. Although Indians made up the single largest voluntary military force in this global war (as well as WW II), India-- despite being on the victorious side--had a limited role in determining the post-war international order. Today, as there is clamour for India to play a similar role, particularly against the threat posed by the Islamic State, New Delhi’s approach will be tempered by its historical experience, especially its ability--or lack of it-- to shape the emerging world order.

However, with the upheaval wrought by state and non-state actors to its west and the prospect of inter-state war rising to its east, in addition to its immediate neighbourhood, India sits at the epicentre of the unfolding geopolitical disorder; It may have no choice but to manage the chaos and restore order regionally and globally for its own interest.

The Narendra Modi government, despite early indications to the contrary, has embarked on an activist and robust foreign policy at the bilateral, regional and even multilateral level. Modi’s foreign policy has displayed three characteristics: a mix of idealism tempered with realism; a promotion of India’s soft and hard power; and continuity than change with policies of the previous government.

Above all, hedging appears to be the one leitmotif of the evolving Modi doctrine: be it wooing Chinese investments-- including in nuclear energy--while the border remains unsettled; engaging Russia despite its growing isolation and military overtures to Pakistan; seeking to revitalise the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation while disengaging with Pakistan; and actively working with the Group of Twenty countries to reform existing international financial institutions while also signing on to the BRICS and Asian Infrastructure and Investment Banks, both of which could challenge these institutions.

To succeed, hedging requires three domestic conditions: a reformed and capable foreign policy and security establishment; the ability of the prime minister’s office to delegate implementation to various ministries; and the ability to engage key state governments as stakeholders in foreign policy. This remains a work in progress.

Despite key differences on Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, as well as climate issues, the US is emerging as India’s preferred partner to accomplish its domestic and foreign policy objectives, as evidenced by a second Modi-Obama summit in less than six months. With overlapping interests in areas in turmoil as well as climate, cyber, trade, outer space and maritime issues, the US and India have no choice but to work with each other, despite their myriad differences.

These are essential to ensure the new year is more peaceful and conducive for India’s growth than this one.

W.P.S. Sidhu is senior fellow for foreign policy at Brookings India and a senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation, New York University. He writes on strategic affairs every fortnight.

Comments are welcome at otherviews@livemint.com

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Published: 21 Dec 2014, 08:03 PM IST
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