BackAfghanistan’s bruising political game
The national unity government in Afghanistan might be more divisive than accommodating
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They say Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires. From Alexander the Great, to the British, the Soviets, and now the Americans, every foreign power that has tried to control Afghanistan has been ousted. Afghanistan’s latest political experiment makes one wonder if it shall prove to be the graveyard of democracy in this part of the world as well.
Imagine a national election fought between two candidates. Results are declared. Both accuse each other of fraud. Then both decide to “accommodate" each other’s interests and come up with an arrangement where both get to rule. So the country ends up with not one, but two potential frauds. The results of the presidential election declared on Sunday indicate that clearly.
The first round of voting in April showed that Abdullah Abdullah had secured 45% of the votes cast and Ashraf Ghani 31.5%. Since neither had secured 50% of the votes, by Afghan electoral law, a runoff was held on 14 June. Since then, there has been no end to dispute and rancour. The final results of that second round were announced without any details on Sunday.
Now Ghani and Abdullah have decided to form a national unity government, wherein Ghani will be the president and Abdullah, the chief executive officer. When they agreed to a power sharing agreement hours after the declaration of the final results, it was out of pressure from the US and not some grave need for national unity.
For the roughly 60% of the population that braved threats and violence from the Taliban to come out and vote either way, this arrangement might look like a mockery of their right to choose. And yet, the alternative, going in for a re-election, would have been unthinkable in the volatile country.
The election “result" and voting patterns have an interesting story to tell which will have many ramifications in the future.
Ghani is an Ahmedzai Pashtun, and his rival Abdullah Abdullah, is a Pashtun with an alleged Tajik inheritance—it is claimed that he is a Tajik from his mother’s side.
The provincial breakdown of the preliminary results is revealing. These are the only detailed results available so far. There are unlikely to be any further updates.
Province by province, it reflects Afghanistan’s ethnic and political fractures. Abdullah has won, or secured more votes than Ghani, in all the Northern provinces except Faryab and Jowzjan (more on this soon). Ghani, in contrast, has won all the key (and troublesome) eastern and south-western provinces. The north is dominated by Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and other ethnic groups, power base of the Northern Alliance. After the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, Abdullah has been the leader of the Northern Alliance. The eastern and southwestern parts of Afghanistan are dominated by Pashtuns, the ruling group of the country for long. It is notable that these provinces chose Ghani, a virtual non-entity in Afghanistan’s tribal politics. In the end, ethnicity has trumped any notion or hope of voting along what the candidates had to offer and not their ethnic background.
Ghani’s win in Faryab and Jowzjan is most probably because of the influence of his running mate, the notorious Uzbek warlord and an old player in the Afghan power game Abdul Rashid Dostum.
Normally, this should not have mattered as that is how politics happens in developing countries: voters vote on the most visible marker, personal appeal, caste, religion, ethnicity and not some choice based on policy options.
In Afghanistan, however, this is trouble. There is a good chance that both candidates will condition their foreign and defence outlooks on who voted for them. This is all the more likely as there is little trust between the two. To top it all, neighbouring countries will respond accordingly. Pakistan, for example, by default will back the candidate with influence in the eastern provinces. Abdullah is unlikely to find favour with Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Ghani will be their man. It will be tragic for Afghanistan if its future is to be decided in this way. Yet that is how matters will pan out.
Abdullah, bruised and battered for now, is likely to find silent succour from India and possibly, Russia. While India should make all attempts to build friendly relations with Ghani, it should not ditch its old friend Abdullah. He remains a voice of great influence in his country. It does not matter if he has lost an election.
Global Roaming runs every Tuesday to take stock of international events and trends from a political and economic perspective.
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