BackMonthly exports have remained around the present level for the last three years
Absolute numbers indicate exports have been unable to get off the ground in spite of a hefty fall in rupee value
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Export growth has slowed to 2.4% in August compared with a year ago, down from 7.3% in July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports grew by a meagre 0.1% in August, Nomura Research says. But the chart shows the long-term trend. Despite the rupee depreciating from 46.1 to a dollar in August 2011 to 60.51 by August 2014, exports in the month were up a mere 8.9% from the level they were at three years ago.
Forget about the monthly growth numbers, which are influenced by the base effect, the absolute numbers indicate exports have been unable to get off the ground in spite of a hefty fall in the value of the rupee.
The numbers are telling us that there are other, structural factors at work that inhibit exports, Gaurav Kapur, senior economist at RBS Mumbai, points out. Between November 2010 and August 2014, monthly exports have averaged $ 25.5 billion, he says (see chart). Current exports are only a bit above that average. Clearly, if the Narendra Modi government’s aims of export-led growth are to be realized, we will have to do much more to make our exports competitive.
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